Articles

June Technical Speaker 2

Analysis of Maximum Probable Storm Surge at the South Texas Project Site

James R. (Bob) Bailey, Ph.D., P.E., F.ASCE

Exponent conducted an analysis of storm surge inundation at a nuclear plant operated by South Texas Project Nuclear Operating Company (STPNOC).  The analysis reflected current best practices in predicting the probable maximum storm surge by using the Advanced Circulation Model (ADCIRC) with the latest available topographic and bathymetric elevation data for the Texas Gulf Coast.  The ADCIRC model was also linked to a computer program called SWAN to calculate wave-induced setup, in addition to the wind-induced setup.  Features like levees, floodwalls, railroads, and raised highways were carefully incorporated into the model.  The most conservative combination of storm scenarios in terms of features that contribute most to amplification of storm surge height were selected for the model runs.  This presentation will discuss the maximum storm surge levels estimated by ADCIRC+SWAN at the site as a function of various storm features.

Dr. Bailey is a licensed Professional Engineer and Fellow of the American Society of Civil Engineers. For over 30 years, Dr. Bailey has served as a technical consultant, project manager, and researcher for private industry, universities, and government. As a Senior Managing Engineer in Exponent’s Building & Structures practice, he brings specialized expertise to areas related to wind engineering, construction materials, solid mechanics, dynamics, numerical analysis, structural analysis and design, and materials testing. 

Dr. Bailey’s primary area of expertise is determining the risk exposure of residential, commercial, and industrial properties to hazards associated with hurricanes, tornadoes, and flooding. He has conducted hurricane risk assessments and developed mitigation programs for various types of health, industrial, educational, and offshore energy facilities. Over the past 15 years he has conducted field surveys to document storm damage in the aftermath of hurricanes Irene (1999), Charley (2004), Francis (2004), Katrina (2005), Rita (2005), Wilma (2005), Ike (2008), and Sandy (2012), Tropical Storm Allison (2001), the Oklahoma City Tornado (1999), and the April-May 2011 Tornado Outbreak. 

Dr. Bailey’s past work at ExxonMobil included estimating wind loads on drilling structures, developing conceptual designs of gravity-based structures for arctic offshore environments, and conducting research and teaching classes on well cementing. He also has extensive experience working with FEMA under the Public Assistance Program following Tropical Storm Allison (2001–2004), and Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana (2005) and Hurricane Rita in Texas (2005–2006). Dr. Bailey recently conducted an analysis of the storm surge risk posed to the South Texas Project Electric Generating Station using advanced hydrodynamic modeling techniques, and subsequently presented the results to the NRC. 

Dr. Bailey has served as a lecturer in the private sector and at the university level on subjects related to wind and petroleum engineering. He also has been responsible for the design of test facilities and the development of test programs related to construction and energy. Dr. Bailey is currently the Presiding Officer of a five member expert panel, appointed by the Texas Department of Insurance in 2013, whose purpose is to develop ways of determining whether a loss to TWIA-insured property was caused by wind, waves, or tidal surges. He is also a member of the ASCE 7-16 Wind Load Subcommittee. He is past Chair of the ASCE Petrochemical Wind Load Task Committee, and served on an API 4F sub-committee assigned to revise specifications and guidelines for determining wind loads on onshore and offshore drilling structures.